As the stock and gold markets started the Lunar New Year with several upheavals, Tuoi Tre spoke with two experts on whether these two channels are still appealing enough to attract investors this year.
Dinh Nho Bang, general secretary and deputy chairman of the Vietnam Gold Trading Association, told Tuoi Tre that the gold market this year will remain in its heating state as it did last year, with domestic gold expected to fluctuate in accordance with its global counterpart’s development.
Amid the ongoing global economic turbulence, the public, investors, and investment funds will choose gold as their main investing channel, Bang said.
The average gold price in 2012 will be around US$1,800 an ounce, Bang said, saying the forecast is based on consultancies from international experts.
“Global price currently revolves around $1,674 an ounce, so at first, it is likely to rise to the $1,700 an ounce mark,” he said.
“There is little likelihood the price will drop below $1,600-$1,500 an ounce.”
Bang added that the price of the precious metal in Vietnam will continue to rely on global fluctuation.
“However, the exact gold price can only be determined by the management policies of the State Bank of Vietnam,” he said.
“The gap between domestic and global prices last year once widened to as much as VND2 million ($100) a tael, but we hope that the difference would be reduced to VND400,000 as the central bank governor had claimed.”
With the global gold price development expected to remain unstable in 2012, Bang said local investors are advised to put their money into the bank savings channel.
“At a time when inflation is high, and gold prices fluctuate in an unpredictable way, depositing your money is a good choice,” he said.
“Investing in gold is a double-edged sword: you can reap whopping profits, but can also incur massive losses.”
Stock market still attractive: HoSe chairman
Running counter to Bang’s advice to send money to banks, Tran Dac Sinh, chairman of the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE), told Tuoi Tre that the stock market is still able to attract investors this year.
“Securities remain an attractive investing channel, and investors will still manage to earn profits, though it is harder to do so compared to last year,” Sinh said.
He said the outlook is made based on certain good signs of the macro-economy, such as cooling inflation, and an expected drop in bank interest rates.
“Once the economy posts bright outlook, money will flow into the stock market.”
Sinh said that the current banks’ interest rates are still too high, causing difficulties for businesses.
“Moreover, the high interest rates have attracted money to banks, while such investments should be put into channels like securities, real estate, or gold.”
Sinh said the government will soon provide assistance in the near future to help the stock market get out of this tough spot, a move he said will not only benefit the stock market itself, but also businesses and industries.
