This year’s dry season will see more power outages since most large hydropower reservoirs are running out of water, according to the Electricity of Vietnam Group.
The water shortage is estimated at 12 billion cubic meters, which is equivalent to 3 billion kilowatt-hours. Hydropower contributes over 35 percent of Vietnam’s power output.
Load shedding last year saved around 1.39 billion kWh, EVN said.
In the last quarter of 2010, the Ministry of Industry and Trade ordered EVN to draft a plan for load shedding, which, in the worst case, will last through the first half of this year.
Steel, cement, and chemical firms are likely to be the worst hit in the form of fewer production days, while power will also be cut in both urban and rural areas.
Ta Van Huong, head of the Ministry’s Energy Department, rejected suggestions that EVN is painting a bleak picture just to increase power tariffs, saying it is a fact that power output cannot match demand and that the Electricity Regulation Department is closely monitoring EVN.
No sight of light at the end of the tunnel
Though EVN put into operation 11 turbines with a combined capacity of 1,800 MW last year, including 400 MW from the Son La Hydropower Plant, the water shortage is a vexing problem.
The Hoa Binh Hydropower Plant in the north, which normally generates around 8 billion kWh – or 10 percent of the national output -- is expected to produce 600 million kWh less.
So, the country is now dependent on thermal power plants to save the day. EVN last year added 1,420MW of thermal capacity to the national grid.
But the ministry fears the new plants are likely to go through long trial runs and constant breakdowns since their continuous operation will mean bypassing regular maintenance.
Several plants are in trouble this year, including Hai Phong 1, Quang Ninh 1, Cam Pha, and the expanded Uong Bi, which will cause a loss of thousands of megawatts, said To Quoc Tru, director of the Vietnam Energy Consultancy Center, said.
